McCain is going to win. Here are the scenarios I see:
1. Clinton wins the most pledged delegates by the end of the primary season (or if Obama concedes at any point). That's still quite possible. Although Obama's been winning states left and right this weekend and will probably win a couple more this Tuesday, Clinton's got a good shot at getting a lot of delegates in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, coming up in the next couple of months. Plus, even if she wins by a few delegates, it would be enough.
If she gets so many that Obama concedes, or she otherwise goes into the Convention with the most pledged votes, that would probably be the best among likely outcomes for the Democrats. We won't have to worry about the superdelegates or Michigan and Florida; since Clinton's winning anyway, no one's going to object to the superdelegates' votes, and the delegates from Michigan and Florida will probably just get seated. Obama supporters will for the most part acknowledge that she won fair and square, and her race against McCain will probably be close.
I personally think, though, that because McCain is so popular among independents, Clinton will have an uphill battle. The last two elections were very evenly divide along partisan lines, but McCain probably has more ability to cross those lines than Clinton. Not only that, but I know there are many people who are typically Democrats who would consider voting for McCain, but I doubt the reverse is true.
My politically incorrect side wonders how many female Republicans will vote for her (and how much of the female independent vote she'll get). I certainly know plenty of female Democrats who openly acknowledge that they're voting for her in large part because she's a woman, and exit polls show that she leads handily in the white women vote. I think her ability to capitalize on that could be key. So yeah, I think McCain's got the edge, but she's still got a shot. Moving on...
2. Obama gets the most pledged delegates based on the primaries, but only by a narrow margin. If this happens, the unpledged superdelegates will probably swing the election to Clinton, because she's got more connections. Michigan and Florida will be irrelevant. Still, many Obama supporters will be pretty pissed about having their voice taken away from them. Many Obama supporters who would otherwise have been loyal Democratic Party voters may choose to abstain or even vote for McCain in November. Historically, just about every time there's been a split decision like this at a party convention, that party has lost. Some Obama voters getting pissed may just be enough to lose Clinton the general election.
3. Obama not only wins the most pledged delegates, but he even gets so many that it will likely overcome Clinton's advantage in superdelegates. That's when Michigan and Florida will come into play in earnest. Even though the DNC stripped their votes for moving their primaries early in disregard of DNC rules, and even though the candidates then agreed not to campaign in those states, the states are playing hardball and will send their delegates to the Convention anyway and demand to be seated. Clinton has offered them her support because she won the most votes in those states. (Obama wasn't even on the ticket in Michigan.) Obama obviously objects. Whether they will be seated will be a decision for the "credentials committee". I'm not sure how that gets formed, but my understanding is that it will be crazy ugly if this happens.
If Clinton wins, and the delegates are seated, then many Obama voters will be even more upset with her than if they lost just because of superdelegates, and it will seriously hurt her chances in November.
On the flipside, if Obama wins, and the delegates are not counted, he's also screwed. It would really piss of voters in Michigan and Florida, and we all know how important voters in Florida are, so that would become a major hurdle for Obama to overcome in November. Either way, it'd be bad for the Democrats. Damned if you do and damned if you don't. Again, this is probably why disputed conventions usually suck for the party in question.
In an attempt to avoid this, the DNC is urging Michigan and Florida to hold caucuses, essentially nullifying their primary votes and selecting delegates anew, and giving the candidates a chance to formally campaign, etc. But the states aren't budging. They're standing firm on the delegates they're selecting based on those primaries. Anyway, McCain will be very happy if scenario comes to pass.
4. Finally, Obama may get such a lead by the end of the primaries that neither the superdelegates nor Michigan and Florida will matter. Unlike Clinton, he would have to win in pledged candidates (excluding Michigan and Florida) by perhaps a couple hundred delegates in order to totally overcome her advantage outside of those delegates. It doesn't seem to me like this is likely. If he does win by such a wide margin, it'd be a huge boost to his campaign, and I think he would have a very good shot against McCain in the November.
Actually, not just that, but I think it would be a really exciting campaign because both are candidates who have shown a lot of appeal to the critical independent voters and potentially even to voters from the opposing party. So it would be a campaign that may feel less partisan and more intelligent than is typical.
On the race issue, and again to be politically incorrect, exit polls do show that he doesn't do very well among white people in traditionally Republican states, though in California he did very well among white men. But I think that since he's not likely to carry many of these Republican states anyway, the real question is how much his race will affect him in swing states among independent voters. And I have no idea what the answer to that question is.
Of course, I think it's kinda moot, because I think the odds of Obama winning the Democratic nomination are slim because of the superdelegates and Michigan and Florida.
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P.S.: As for my personal views, I prefer Obama over both Clinton and McCain. Between Clinton and McCain, I am definitely still a Democrat on the issues and would prefer Clinton. And if we have a Republican Congress again, I'd certainly prefer Clinton to be the President. But yet, as long as we still have a Democratic Congress, I don't think McCain would be so bad, and he might even be better than Clinton because he'd be better at getting the parties to work together (whereas the Republicans despise Clinton). I think my nightmare scenario, though, is Huckabee becoming McCain's running mate, McCain winning, and then McCain dying in office. If McCain does pick Huckabee as his VP, I'd be a big supporter of Clinton for that alone.